This week I had the privilege of attending the 10th annual Residential Real Estate Outlook at the University of San Diego’s Burnham Moore’s Center for Real Estate. This was the fourth year in a row that I’ve attended and found some surprisingly positive comments from the presenters. This year, I decided to send a few Twitter updates during the conference. You can follow me here: http://www.twitter.com/johnruzicka.
First up, was Jay Brinkmann, who is chief economist and senior VP of research and economics for the Mortgage Bankers Association. His presentation focused on national research for the entire US housing market, but he did have some breakout figures for CA and other states. Bottom line from his talk was that California will see a different type of recovery due to our unique economy and continuing local and state government problems.
One interesting figure he mentioned was that in CA, 80% of all mortgages that are 30 (or more) days late end up going into foreclosure (at least beginning of the process). That number was significantly higher than any other states. So it sounds like CA (or Californians or CA lenders) are not doing such a great job of saving folks (or themselves) from foreclosure.
Ryan Ratcliffe, an economics professor from the University of San Diego School of Business, was up next and talked about the dim light that he sees at the end of the economic tunnel. Many of his graphs showed plummeting figures, followed by more recent upturns in some cases. Basically, there are some slight improvements in leading economic indicators. Ryan mentioned that he predicts a “jobless recovery” due to the numerous manufacturing jobs lost during the recession that will likely not be replaced.
Finally, rock star USD econ professor Alan Gin made an appearance. Alan is probably the most-quoted professor at the university. Union Trib, NPR, local news outlets, national media – you name it. If it has to do with San Diego real estate, they’re likely calling Alan.
Dr. Gin’s leading economic indicators for San Diego are always interesting. He takes into account a number of factors and his overall assessment was that 2010 will simply have, “less bad news.” He did point out a couple of bright spots – housing starts are slightly higher and consumer confidence is rising.
His tally is that San Diego will lose a total of 50,000 jobs in 2009. Most of those were in the construction and tourism/hospitality industries. That’s the bad news. Good news is that he’s predicting a marked improvement in 2010 and the county will actually gain about 2-3k jobs. So, in Dr. Gin’s view, we’re actually stabilizing and will hopefully see some improvement by the end of 2010.
As a potential buyer, the market in 2010 should stay relatively the same in terms of home prices. However, there was talk of interest rates and the probable end of the first-time home buyer credit. Thanks for reading – please contact me if you have any questions or want to go take a look at homes!